Expert Predicts Bitcoin Rally Due to Trump’s ‘Helicopter Money’
10.11.2025
News / Economy / Analytics
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a “dividend” program for Americans funded by tariff revenues.
Traders on prediction markets are skeptical about the approval chances. On Polymarket and Kalshi, the probability stands at 23%.
According to analysts from The Kobeissi Letter, about 85% of the U.S. adult population, or 220 million people, could receive the payments. This would amount to a total of $440 billion in dividends.
The expert expressed doubt that Congress would approve the president’s initiative.
Tax and budget specialists pointed out the discrepancy between the amount of tariff revenue collected and the stated goals of the payments.
According to Erica York, Vice President of Federal Tax Policy, at least $300 billion would be needed for the dividends promised by Trump. So far, tariffs have brought in only $120 billion.
In the context of the overall impact of tariffs on the budget, the financial prospects of the program appear even more dubious, the expert stated. She explained that each dollar received from tariffs costs the budget 24 cents due to reduced income tax and social contribution revenues.
Considering the indirect effect, the net budget revenue decreases to approximately $90 billion.
Earlier, Bitfinex analysts expressed a similar view, drawing parallels with events in 2020. At that time, COVID-19-related payments spurred an influx of funds from retail investors and became one of the factors driving bitcoin’s growth.
In March 2020, the U.S. president signed a $2 trillion initiative, which included payments of up to $1,200 for citizens with an adjusted gross income of up to $75,000.
During that period, the price of bitcoin surged by 1050%—from $6,000 in March 2020 to $69,000 by November 2021. However, the rise also coincided with quantitative easing by the Fed. The regulator announced a $4 trillion bond-buying program, increasing the money supply.
The current “dividend” payment could also be accompanied by a crypto-friendly policy from the Federal Reserve. Investors anticipate that at the December 10 meeting, the regulator will cut the key rate by another 25 basis points.
“Everyone will receive dividends of at least $2,000, except for high-income citizens,” the politician wrote on his social network Truth Social.Currently, the country’s Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of the president’s proposed tariff measures.
Traders on prediction markets are skeptical about the approval chances. On Polymarket and Kalshi, the probability stands at 23%.
According to analysts from The Kobeissi Letter, about 85% of the U.S. adult population, or 220 million people, could receive the payments. This would amount to a total of $440 billion in dividends.Opinions
Andy Constan, CEO of Damped Spring Advisors, noted that Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally approve such payments. Decisions are made by the legislative branch.The expert expressed doubt that Congress would approve the president’s initiative.
Tax and budget specialists pointed out the discrepancy between the amount of tariff revenue collected and the stated goals of the payments.
According to Erica York, Vice President of Federal Tax Policy, at least $300 billion would be needed for the dividends promised by Trump. So far, tariffs have brought in only $120 billion.
In the context of the overall impact of tariffs on the budget, the financial prospects of the program appear even more dubious, the expert stated. She explained that each dollar received from tariffs costs the budget 24 cents due to reduced income tax and social contribution revenues.
Considering the indirect effect, the net budget revenue decreases to approximately $90 billion.
Impact
Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital, believes that if implemented, Trump’s initiative would positively impact the stock and cryptocurrency markets.Earlier, Bitfinex analysts expressed a similar view, drawing parallels with events in 2020. At that time, COVID-19-related payments spurred an influx of funds from retail investors and became one of the factors driving bitcoin’s growth.
In March 2020, the U.S. president signed a $2 trillion initiative, which included payments of up to $1,200 for citizens with an adjusted gross income of up to $75,000.
During that period, the price of bitcoin surged by 1050%—from $6,000 in March 2020 to $69,000 by November 2021. However, the rise also coincided with quantitative easing by the Fed. The regulator announced a $4 trillion bond-buying program, increasing the money supply.
The current “dividend” payment could also be accompanied by a crypto-friendly policy from the Federal Reserve. Investors anticipate that at the December 10 meeting, the regulator will cut the key rate by another 25 basis points.
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